[CD]

Or, have we begun to see the peak of the bell curve? Do you think sales of new bikes will continue to grow at current levels? Do you plan on major upgrades to your bike this year?

[Sleepy]

hard to say about the bike thing. I think the Harley market is a bit softer than it was. It is up here and the bikes are quite a bit cheaper now. Between the exchange rate and a softer demand I see where a used '03 Bagger is going for about ten grand cheaper than it was new. Bikes from the big four are selling well and the Italian bikes are moving well here too. I 95'd the bagger and am trying to run it with stock cams and stock pipes..nice and quiet and goes not bad..not great but not bad..and I can listen to the stereo...

[AFNurse]

not sure...my guess is that at sometime the market will have to flatten out... never know tho, with sport bike riders that age and advance to more comfortable rides...kids getting old enuf to get a sport bike..... but I think the current full blown trend/market can't last. I am looking at maybe doing something with the pipes this year....depending on how much the wife keeps bugging me about how loud I am right now.....I can change, but it will cost her!!! Other then small things, think my bike is in the shape I want it. Not even remotely thinking of an upgrade.....nothing out there that I see as an upgrade!!! If I decide to do the pipes thing, will cost her additional, as I plan on riding out to DP, buying the pipes in person, putting them on out there, then riding home!!! Will probably go ahead and have CD throw the bike on the DYNO also to give me the best for the system!!! Like I said....It'll cost her!!! course, come to think about it, it would be my paycheck.......

[dutch]

I think it will grow for a couple of reasons,one the Chinese are coming and two the powers that be are going to reopen some of the land in California among other places to recreational vehicles folks will find a way to play. Dutch

[bxbutch]

i think the market will flatten or possibly grow slighty but not at the pace it has been as far as my personnel ride as soon as the warrenty is up in nov. it will be tear down & build reliable 95 inch touring eng. & 6 speed dd trans.

[SK]

It's tough to say, but I talk to people all the time who don't ride and are seriously considering it because of the gas mileage I tell them I get over my truck. Sure, some new vehicles get great mileage, but many people don't want to buy those vehicles. So I think maybe, just maybe, the price of gas may influence some to get a bike to commute on.

[Killer-B]

Hi there, well what industry are we talking about? The new Harley industry, the parts industry or motorcycles in general? I think Willy G has saturated the market for new Harley’s (unfortunate). As most the white-collar folks have bought their new bike, which will actually be good in a few years after they get bored with the bike, as there will be some LOW mileage bikes for cheap, but, unfortunately, it will hurt those that actually ride and resale their bikes. As for the parts industry, it will always be in good shape; as long as there are riders out there. As for myself, I just got my custom Dyna on the road and plan doing a few upgrades in the next year or two on the area’s I had to skimp on in order to get it on the road. So I guess I would fall into the last option; the add more to what I got.

[CD]

Originally Posted by Killer-B

Hi there, well what industry are we talking about? The new Harley industry, the parts industry or motorcycles in general? I think Willy G has saturated the market for new Harley’s (unfortunate). As most the white-collar folks have bought their new bike, which will actually be good in a few years after they get bored with the bike, as there will be some LOW mileage bikes for cheap, but, unfortunately, it will hurt those that actually ride and resale their bikes. As for the parts industry, it will always be in good shape; as long as there are riders out there. As for myself, I just got my custom Dyna on the road and plan doing a few upgrades in the next year or two on the area’s I had to skimp on in order to get it on the road. So I guess I would fall into the last option; the add more to what I got.

Sorry, what I meant is the Power Sports industry as a whole. Which would include manufacturers and the aftermarket industry. I agree on several of your points as they are what we are seeing as a trend. New bike sales are leveling off due to a variety of issues but primarily the economy. Gas prices will help offset this somewhat. You are also correct in that after those that buy for the status or the "me too" craze and those that did buy to ride but loose disposable income will sell their bikes quickly at more realistic prices.

I have long held that once the new (H-D) bike sales peaks the used prices will drop to reasonable levels. Then, those that could not afford a new bike can get financing and the first thing they will do is make it there own ride.

For many years my partner and I felt this would happen. The market would finally get saturated and if the economy was right, a whole lot of folks could be getting "new" rides that they never could of afforded before.

Maybe the day of the 8k basket case Shovel is over. Then again, they are getting rare..

[Killer-B]

Yes, and right-on. The Power Sports industry will always be in good shape as long as there is a gear head alive, and there is a need for speed. I also think a poor economy will not have a large effect on the industry, at least the parts side of it. I know a lot of poor (Financially challenged) people out there, (including myself) that will eat a lot of hamburger instead of steak in order to buy that next performance-part or up-grade.

[maxpower_hd]

I think the market is already starting to slow down. Not only with bikes either. New bike prices seem to be going down and I know from personal experience that used bike prices are dropping considerably. Eventually, newer used prices will drop so much that the new ones will stop selling. There are only so many people in the market and it seems to me that the market is becoming flooded.

[troy boy]

I think the market will get stonger as the price of fuel is increasing.Over here in Australia at the moment the price is $1.30 a litre.That is way too dear to be running a v8 as I do.So it is easily much cheaper to run a bike.Better fuel economy.More play money available for other things.

[Goose]

As gas prices go up, it's a two edged sword. Yeah, bikes are attractive and some will finally buy that bike they've always wanted, but until now couldn't justify. However, the economy will at some point be affected.

The GOLD mine, at least in medium to large cities, is in the scooter market IMHO. They're easy for the non-motorcyclist to learn and women are attracted to them. They get super mileage, smaller ones anyway, and parking is mostly free for them. They offer some protection from wet roads and luggage capacity. They're the ultimate practical inner city personal transportation. Bikes will benefit, but scooters should explode in popularity. Maybe eventually some of those scooter riders will cross over, but I doubt that'll be a big source of sales for large motorcycles.

[Goose]

Originally Posted by maxpower_hd

I think the market is already starting to slow down. Not only with bikes either. New bike prices seem to be going down and I know from personal experience that used bike prices are dropping considerably. Eventually, newer used prices will drop so much that the new ones will stop selling. There are only so many people in the market and it seems to me that the market is becoming flooded.

Perhaps in the Harley market or even the overall cruiser market. But, with hogs, you have supply catching demand and that means MSRP is more a reality in areas of the country as waiting lists become history.

Sport bikes have never slacked, they're BOOMING! Shops can't stock small motorcycles and scooters fast enough. That's the gas price thing working. The sport bike thing is pretty much the new fad, I think. It's the younger folks getting into it. The old farts are riding cruisers. That's a generalization I know, and I violate my own premise, but on the average I think that's true.

I think the big touring bikes will only suffer if the economy turns down, regardless of the price of gas. I'd love to buy a new touring bike. AFNurse's EG Standard got me thinking about it again. But, I can't afford it right now. I'll tell ya this, though, you can get an EG Standard pretty reasonable now. It's a danged nice, comfy ride. The new Wing is just too danged big and heavy and complicated for me. Those are about the only touring bike choices left since the Voyager died. Does Yamaha still make that touring Star with the buick electra dash board? I never really cared for that thing, though.

Anyway, I digress, I think it all depends on the market segment, but overall, I still say a bike shop that sells a variety of market segment bikes, scooters, small motorcycles, etc, in addition to cruisers and touring bikes, will see sales go up. The down side, it's the big bikes that have the big margins so salesmen and shops don't make as much on a small bike.

[Sleepy]

They're actually having some deals on some Harleys...some left overs from the previous year and one dealer still has some '03s left. It's been a while since I've seen this. It brings back the days where you'd see a forlorn mutt FXR waiting to find a new home...nowadays that would be softails and Dynas..The freightliners sell well and with the exchange and a few odds and ends a Harley Bagger is cheaper than a Gold Wing. Scooters are catching on but the Italian ones are a bit on the pricey side..we're seeing tons of Sportbikes out there.

[AFNurse]

I know a scooter makes sense for many...short comute, great gas milage, some luggage room.... cost isn't too bad for most.... Had a sport bike...great gas milage (as long as I didn't stand on the gas TOO hard, but even then was pretty good!). Bagger is the way to go.....Long haul, plenty of cargo, still can find some parking (bit tighter then a scooter but.....) and I am getting almost 40mpg with a download map on the PCIIIr with stage 1. Bet I could get better if CD would ever get the part so he can tune EFI!!!! And 37-40 is a FAR sight better then the F150 coming in at 17-18mpg!!! Never can tell what markets will do tho.....

[Goose]

Yeah, a EG Standard MSRPs 4K less than a Wing. I like the idea of the Wing's good handling and I've never been into floor boards, but the GL1800 Wing is just too huge! Gas mileage is poor, too. The EG is about the only full boat tourer that appeals to me. It don't have the motor and it don't have the handling, but it's USEFUL and gets good mileage and is super comfy and ain't a friggin' two wheeled car. I like the torque characteristics of the motor for trailering. I'd think with the torque, it'd yank a trailer around okay, maybe not like a Wing, but acceptable.

The softtail sales are soft????? I haven't heard that. Dyna sales have been slowing for a while now compared to the soft tails and baggers and especially the Road King.

I know guys, one in Houston and one in SA, that have independant scooter shops. They deal in the Korean and Chinese stuff and it ain't bad stuff for a killer price compared to the Japanese stuff. Neither of those guys have dust settle on the bikes on the show room. I've sold some DP bikes from http://www.diamousa.com . It don't take much to get a dealer thing going. I'm even authorized for service. I've quit messing with it down here in Podunk, but the big cities these things go like hotcakes. I've hung on to one of the LS200 DP bikes to use for deer hunting down on my place since I sold my 4x4 truck. Neat bike, lotsa fun around town and off road. They need to get a little more mainstream, but the Chinese are going to take over the small bike market from the Japanese, or at least a good portion of it, if they keep improving. The bikes are already very good from some manufacturers. You have to pick and choose, though. The ones you see on ebay for $300, well, the old phrase "you get what you pay for" sorta applies. There are a couple dozen manufacturers over there. Jenching is one of the better ones, sorta higher dollar. They have a co-operation thing going with Yamaha. I have a TTR Yamaha clone from them and that thing is impressive.

Yeah, the sport bike thing is a nation wide boom. It's a lot of mostly 20 and 30 somethings from what I can gather. But, it's a huge deal right now. At some point you have to wonder where the limits will be on those things. Guys buy 'em for the look and the motor and never rode a friggin' honda 90 much less a Hayabusa. That's pretty scary, frankly. Those liter bikes are too the point now that they'll roll on wheelie third gear at 100 mph. I mean, in a 70 mph world, what's the point???? Even the 600s are pretty bodacious. They make near 120 hp way up in the rpm range. As they build revs, they get REAL nasty, LOL. The handling on these things is first rate, but they really don't need any more motor. If a guy wants to do track days and stuff, I guess I can see having one. They're way excessive for the street, though. And, the insurance rates on liter bikes is way over MY budget! A good number of 'em get wadded, so I can see why.

[troy boy]

A lot of scooters being sold here to.They are selling them so cheap nearly every man and his dog has one.Im hoping that it doesnt get too the stage of vietnam or similar country where the roads are full of bikes and hardly any cars.Some people riding here are temporary australians as they shoot up the inside of you while your driving a car or truck.Makes you very nervous while driving something much bigger than them.I think a scooter is way to go for home to work and back.Then have main bike for weekend cruising.Cheap enough to buy them now for that purpose.

[hotroadking]

I have a 2000 and a ton of $$ in the motor and stuff, the bolt on I can move to a new Heritage, but .... Why!

If I was going to get a new bike it would be a second one, like a bagger or vrod, maybe a Road Glide, and I'd probably consider a 2 year old one to get some extras out of someone that needs to sell.

Bought my last one in 00.

I just rebuild it every year or 5000 Miles or when they come out with a larger motor kit

May build a chopper, either old school metric (think Suzi 500 or 1000)
Or one of the Kits

[troy boy]

Yeh I love the v-rod,wouldnt mind one myself.But cant afford one at the moment.Sometime in the future I can see myself getting one though.How does your bike go with that much done.Is it good economy wise.If bike sales drop I think with you rebuilding your bike so often the company would stay open with all parts you use LOL.