[SK]

Harley-Davidson's Stock Tumbles As Co. Trims Shipment, Earnings Forecasts Due to Weak Sales

MILWAUKEE (AP) -- Fabled motorcycle manufacturer Harley-Davidson Inc. cut its shipment and earnings forecasts for this year Wednesday after weak first-quarter sales and a glut of 2005 models on dealer floors, sending its shares down nearly 17 percent to their lowest in more than 14 months.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050413/earns...son.html?.v=16

Kind of a shocker I guess. I guess supply finally caught up with demand, so now they'll have to cut back short term production. I can't imagine not being able to find the Harley of your choice within MSRP limits without any problems. I know the last couple of times I've been in a Harley shop there were more bikes on the floor than I'd seen in recent years. Just hope nobody bought stock recently. I'd just read in Rider mag though, that motorcycle sales in the US increased again last year to over a million bikes total for a couple of years running. Cruiser bikes are still the #1 seller, but I think more people are getting into touring bikes the last couple of years. I know I did getting the FJR1300.

[Goose]

Good news is there's still an 8% growth rate in the company and dealerships won't look so much like clothing stores with bikes actually sitting on the show room floor.

I reckon the price of gas going up with help business, but I would expect low price, high gas mileage models, especially scooters, to benefit from the gas crunch. However, last couple of days gas prices have stablized around here.

Who knows what controls the stock market, anyway. There's more than just sales downturns that cause prices to drop. I just hope it doesn't too negatively effect my IRA.

[Sleepy]

market market ..man!!!! HD has had quite a ride for longer than a lot of us figured that it would. I remember eight years ago getting a computer and finding motorcycle online with one of the hot topics being the inflated prices of Harley Davidsons..resale value and just how long the market for Harleys would last ..especially at inflated prices. The stock was a bellweather for the times. A lot of people made some pretty good coin off of Harley..stock, bikes etc. I will tell you what I do like about the softer demand for Harleys though. Prices are down and that means schlunks like me can actually almost afford to get one. I feel badly for the folks that bought an '03 up here..looking at it from a bike to ride standpoint. While it is true that the '03 is a special model ,the price difference for later models is fairly dramatic. I'm not going to live long enough to get the "investment" value back. So I'll just enjoy the '04. It may be a bit of a crummy time to be an investor in Harley stock but I think there's probably not a better time than to buy a Harley bike..for the riders, these are the good old days

[MarcM]

Wonder if the EPA had anything to do with the stock falling...

[voodoo1]

Greed got to them ...that is for sure they/we have a good thing going .. then gotta flood the market and now whammo down goes everything... thanks... I worked hard to buy a bike of my dreams. ( years later...actually on the third one now). And for what? so they can sell more? hire more people build more bikes sell as long as they can then people could get laid off cause over production? Greed for sure..oh well can't see it from Willie's mansion. The real funny thing is seeing private owners trying to sell way overpriced in the magazines even the 03s are still not getting it...that "ride" is over you are not going to get more than- let alone what paid for out of your harley so hold on to them and let the ride begin.. anyone wanting a new one can again wait a while and ours will gain VALUE again....ought to be some type of loyalty from HD for putting them back in business...ever heard of it is worth the wait? Sometimes I wanna bonk Willie upside his noggin other times I still wanna bonk Willie upside the noggin.
PLus if the new ones slow down in production and people hold onto their own the parts business picks up...but oohhhh boy all those new first time buyers ..first you buy a bike then take stuff off to buy another bike in parts.....ew-wee the greed!!!!! can ya blame the BA#$@#$rds

[FLHTbiker]

Well, I got a good deal on my 03 Ultra and I still wouldn't trade it for any Jap bike made. This is the best bike I have ever owned and I thank Harley for that. The stocks may fall as every stock out there does from time to time but It will probably come back as the company has some real positive things going for it.

Marc

[SK]

It doesn't matter what make it is that makes you happy. My Yamaha FJR1300 is the best bike I've ever owned for me..bar none. Doesn't make it necessarily better than any other bike..just better for me. It purrs, gets awesome mileage and range..and flies like a bat outa hell with better handling than any cruiser on the market. That's just me.

I've posted gains on the stock market each of the past two years. Wish I'd bought HD a while back, but I ain't complaining. I try to stay clear of stocks of leisure though. Not in this day and time.

[FLHTbiker]

Hi Kev, please don't misunderstand my post. I guess I like my Harley so well that I get a bit carried away. everyone's bike is the right bike for them no matter what make it is. I own a 1800 Goldwing for now, its going to be sold as I just don't ride it. Great bike but very uncomfortable for my legs so it will be sold, having to charge the battery up as I write this, stone dead from not enough use. Got my eyes on one of the new softail Springer Classic, love that old look and with a few changes, that bike would be really sweat.
I got to see one of the new Royal stars as Beaverton Honda/Yamaha finally broke down and put one out. Nice looking bike and it is really a shame that this bike did not come out with that format when they first came out.

[Sleepy]

Hey Marc. I'm glad the Harley is working for ya. I 95'd the E-G and am trying to break it in. I love the Ducati I have, it's just such a wonderful bike but the Harley is more comfortable and my girlfriend likes it better.

[Kimberly42]

Hey, I hate to see anyone lose their hard-earned money. I have been to a lot of HD dealers lately and saw a LOT of bikes in the showrooms. Overproduction, indeed. My husband ordered one while deployed in Iraq, and while he is awaiting delivery, has an uncontrollable urge to visit dealerships and drool over bikes :-) Ride what makes you happy. In our garage there are 3 Honda's, 2 Kaw's, 1 Yamaha and of course one soon-to-be HD.

[FLHTbiker]

Hi Bob, good to hear from you. Putting the 95 inch kit into the ultra with the 211 cams and the Race Tuner sure made a wopping difference. Glad to hear you have someone to share the bike with.

[johndublu]

Originally Posted by FLHTbiker

Hi Bob, good to hear from you. Putting the 95 inch kit into the ultra with the 211 cams and the Race Tuner sure made a wopping difference. Glad to hear you have someone to share the bike with.

flhtpi 95 inch big bore. I was having so much fun with it. I left the HD dealer in Seacoast NH. ADN GOT ON THE GAS ALITTLE WHEN A CAR PULLED OUT i HIT THE BRAKES WHICH ARE ALL BUT USELESS ON THE ROVING FREIGHT TRAIN AND THE BIKE INSTANTLY SHOOK AND THE REAR END CAME AROUND FLIPING ME AND THE IRON MONSTER TO THE GROUND. i GOT HURT iAM 60 AND HAVE NEVER FELT PAIN LIKE i DID THAT AFTERNOON. i BROKE 3 RIBS AND A SPACULAR BONE IN MY BACK. I SPENT THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS IN THE HOSPITAL AS I HAD OTHER DAMAGE NEAR THE BRAIN EVEN THOUGH I HAD A HELMIT ON. OH BY THE WAY FOR THE GUYS THAT DON'T WEAR THEM YA KNOW THE TOUGH GUYS WELL IF I HAD NOT ONE ON MY HEAD THAT DAY I WOULD NOT BE ALIVE TODAY AND THATS NO BULL BUT YOU DO WHAT YOU WANT. THE REASON I WENT DOWN IS I HAD PULLED OUT OF THE SAME PLACE AT THE SAME SPEED MANY TIMES BEFORE ONE DIFFERANCE I HAD OWNED A KAWASAKI MEAN STREAK AND THERE BRAKES ARE REALLY SOME OF THE BEST EVER INSTALLED ON A MOTORCYCLE. I DON'T GET IT FOR ALL THE MONEY WE PAY FOR A HARLEY THE LAST THING WE SHOULD HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT IS BRAKES THAT IS WHAT WE RELY ON EVERY TIME WE GO ANYWHERE WE NEED THEM TO SAVE OUR LIVES EVERY TIME WE USE THEM PROBLEM WHEN YOU REALLY NEED THEM THATS WHEN YOU FIND OUT WHY PEOPLE BUY JAP BIKES SO THEY DON'T END UP WHERE I WAS OR DEAD. I GOT SO USED TO HOW EASY THE MEANSTREAK HANDLED THAT YOU TAKE THEM FOR GRANTED. wELL AFTER ALL THE RUBBING i TOOK ABOUT THE JAP BIKE i BOUGHT THE MONSTER NOW i HAVE THE NEW sPORTSTER BUT THATS GOING. lISTEN WHY WOULD A COMPANY MAKE TWO IDENTICIAL MOTORCYCLES THE SPORTSTER CUSTOM AND THE SPORTSTER R AND PUT ONE BRAKE ON THE FRONT OF ONE AND TWO BRAKES ON THE FRONT OF THE OTHER AND SAY THEY BOTH STOP ABOUT THE SAME. i WAS THINKING MORE ABOUT WHAT MY HARLEY BUDS WERE THINKING THAN WHERE I HAD JUST CAME FROM BECAUSE OF A BRAKE PROBLEM. WELL I'AM HEADING TO SELL MY NEW SPORTY 1200 WITH LESS THAN 1000MI AND A 21 MOUNTH WARRANTY.
I HAVE ALWAYS WORRIED ABOUT WHAT OTHERS WOULD THINK OF MY CHOICE OF MOTORCYCLES WOULD BE. I JUST CANT JUSTIFY THE BULL ANYMORE AND AM TIRED OF MAKING EXCAUSES FOR HARLEYS CHEEP PRODUCTS. LOOK INVERTED FORKS UP FRONT SIX YES I SAID SIX PISTON DOUBLE DISC CALIPERS THE THINGS THAT SAVE YOUR LIFE ARE THERE MONSTER TIRES 1600CC STOCK NO EXTRA MONEY FOR PAINT CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCALL THOSE ELECTRONIC CONTROLS CLOCK DOUBLE TRIP TACH AND TONS OF OTHER THINGS FOR WHAT 10PLUS GRAND. PUT THE NAME HARLEY ON IT AND OOPS IT'S A 22 TO 25 THOUSAND DOLLAR MOTORCYCLE. WELL IT WAS MY DIME GLAD TO BE ALIVE AND I THINK ILL BUY SOMETHING THAT WILL KEEP ME THAT WAY EM KMAN61352965560@AOL.COM

[FLHTbiker]

Well, glad you made it OK. You could always buy a Honda Goldwing for 19000.00 with ABS brakes that will stop you so quick it will make your eye balls pop out. But I still would not trade my Ultra for it. I have a sure footed and quick stopping Goldwing but I just like my Harley better. Anyway welcome and glad you also wear a helmet as I to think they are kind of important.

Marc

[Monster_Mastiff87]

yeah i did a project in school, (yes im a senior in High School, but graduate in 20 days) and in Economics, i purchased stock in GM, and HD and both went well for about a day or two, then both just headed on a downward spiral. i lost so much money, do ya`ll think that people selling them on the street has anything to do with all this???

[Kimberly42]

Glad you are OK. I always wear a helmet, and your story is a good reinforcement. As far as worrying what others think of your choice of bike, who cares?! The point is that you ride!

Very cool to see a high schooler here. My son is 16 and he also rides. Be safe!

[CD]

Originally Posted by Monster_Mastiff87

yeah i did a project in school, (yes im a senior in High School, but graduate in 20 days) and in Economics, i purchased stock in GM, and HD and both went well for about a day or two, then both just headed on a downward spiral. i lost so much money, do ya`ll think that people selling them on the street has anything to do with all this???

One chases the other. What HD is done is to keep production shy of demand for years. They have ramped up production now and again but, only enough to keep from loosing sales to other brands because frustrated customers wouldn't wait in line. IMHO, The biggest downside to this is trying to forecast future demand because once you ramp up production it is hard to slow it down and recover quickly and economically. HD has done a tremendous job of doing this since 1986 or so and that is quite a run in anyone's book. They must have had a really good Oracle!

In 2003, the anniversary models did not sell out and many dealers had stock left over. In 2004, sales softened even more and for the first time in many years, demand was less than supply on most models.

The first quarter of 2005 is telling us something and it is not just HD, it is across the entire power-sports spectrum. We (the power sports industry) have been impervious to the changes in the economy for reasons that economists can only speculate on for many, many years. I believe that there are now cracks in the armor and some that would have bought a new bike, ATV etc are now saving the money or not going into debt due to uncertainty in the economy.

I have long said that sooner of later that this big bell curve will peak and sales will soften and you will be able to buy a bike at list and used prices will be realistic and not inflated to a ridiculous level. There are downsides for sure because some that purchased a bike at over inflated prices or as an "investment" will loose a lot of money. The upside is that everyday people will be able to afford a bike they have dreamed of and still make a house payment. Sure, it will probably be used and a bit bagged out but, you always start somewhere right?